MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0106
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0927 PM CST THU FEB 01 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN FL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 14...
   
   VALID 020327Z - 020500Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
   ACROSS PARTS OF NRN FL...WITHIN SRN PART OF WW 14...AND ESPECIALLY
   WITH STORMS MOVING INLAND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATEST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DIXIE TO ST. JOHNS
   COUNTIES AND NORTH OF LINE FROM 35 N PIE TO DAB.
   
   ...THROUGH 06Z...
   STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /50-70 KT/ AND 0-3 KM SRH VALUES
   /400-600 M2/S2/ REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED ROTATING STORMS WITH
   AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. 
   ALTHOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   SEVERE STORMS...THE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WITHIN A MOIST
   AIR MASS WILL MAINTAIN A SEVERE POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITH STRONGER
   STORMS MOVING INLAND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS.
   
   ...AFTER 06Z...
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 06Z ACROSS THE FL
   PENINSULA AS LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE SHIFTS EAST OF THE FL PENINSULA IN RESPONSE TO LOWER MS
   VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING ENEWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
   OVERNIGHT.
   
   ..PETERS.. 02/02/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
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