MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0104
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0552 PM CST THU FEB 01 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA/NRN FL INCLUDING PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 13...14...
   
   VALID 012352Z - 020115Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND SOME HAIL TO
   CONTINUE ACROSS VALID PARTS OF WW 13 AND ALL OF WW 14.
   
   THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AS FAR NRN FL BOW
   ECHO CONTINUES TO TRACK ENE AT 60 KT ALONG THE ERN HALF OF THE GA/FL
   BORDER.  ALTHOUGH DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE...EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR VALUES WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
   STORM ORGANIZATION...AND THUS SHOULD MAINTAIN EWD PROGRESSION OF
   BOW.  22Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CURRENT BOW IS LIKELY
   ELEVATED...AND MAY PRECLUDE SOME SEVERE THREAT DURING THE NEXT HOUR.
    HOWEVER...AS ACTIVITY REACHES NERN FL/SERN GA...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
   STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE BASED SHOULD INCREASE WITH ATTENDANT
   THREATS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.
   
   ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED STORMS TRACKING QUICKLY NEWD FROM THE FAR
   NERN GULF INTO NRN FL WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED GREATER
   INSTABILITY REMAINED OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF...BUT AN AXIS OF
   MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXTENDED INLAND ACROSS NRN FL...BETWEEN TAMPA
   AND JACKSONVILLE.  STORMS ACROSS THIS PART OF NRN FL SHOULD BE
   SURFACE BASED OR AT LEAST NEAR SURFACE BASED...THUS INCREASING THE
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...GIVEN STRONG SRH VALUES.  0-1 KM
   SRH VALUES PER 22Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VALUES GREATER THAN 500
   M2/S2.
   
   ..PETERS.. 02/01/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...MOB...
   
   30388642 30598547 30858393 31838329 31748288 31488271
   31768197 31198088 29478075 28938173 28408214 28018270
   28168345 28748442 29368557 29418623