MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0094
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0508 PM CST SUN JAN 21 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF VA AND FAR SOUTHERN MD
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 
   
   VALID 212308Z - 220345Z
   
   FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DOMINANT/SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
   THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL VA...ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF
   I-64...FROM LYNCHBURG/DANVILLE TO THE CHARLOTTESVILLE/RICHMOND
   AREAS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE VA PIEDMONT VIA
   LIQUID EQUIVALENTS UP TO 0.05 IN/HR. FARTHER NORTH...MAINLY SNOW
   WILL LIKELY YIELD TO A MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING
   WITH NORTH EXTENT ALONG I-95 THROUGH THE FREDERICKSBURG VICINITY AND
   PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE DC METRO.
   
   WITH A COLD/SUB-FREEZING WEDGE REMAINING IN PLACE VIA EXITING HIGH
   PRESSURE...STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
   AND ASSOCIATED ELEVATED WARM/MELTING LAYER HAS PROVED FAVORABLE FOR
   FREEZING RAIN MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
   VA. WELL REPRESENTATIVE OF THIS SCENARIO...THE WET BULB PROFILE FROM
   THE EARLIER 18Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM GREENSBORO SC FEATURED A 4.0
   DEG C WARM NOSE AROUND 800 MB...FAVORABLE FOR MELTING AND RESULTANT
   FREEZING RAIN. FARTHER NORTH...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN ACCORDANCE
   WITH RECENT ACARS DATA /NEAR CHARLOTTESVILLE AND THE DC AREA/ AND
   LATEST SREF PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST BOUTS OF INITIAL SNOW
   WILL CHANGE OVER TO SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING
   ALONG I-95 NORTH OF RICHMOND...INCLUDING THE FREDERICKSBURG AREA AND
   PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE DC METRO.
   
   ..GUYER.. 01/21/2007
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
   FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...
   
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