MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0078
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1222 AM CST THU JAN 18 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE GA THROUGH UPSTATE/MIDLAND SC INTO PARTS OF
   NC
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 
   
   VALID 180622Z - 181215Z
   
   ...FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM FAR NE GA THROUGH THE
   CAROLINA PIEDMONT. SLEET WILL MIX IN WITH THE FREEZING RAIN THROUGH
   12Z...
   
   LATEST RADAR DATA SHOW INCREASING RETURNS ACROSS NRN AL. THIS IS
   LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING WAA ALONG STALLED 850 MB
   BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM WEST TO EAST FROM NRN MS THROUGH NRN GA.
    NO IMPULSE IS EASILY NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN THE SRN
   STREAM...BUT MID LEVEL FLOW IS INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO NRN STREAM
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SWRN MN/WRN IA. BOTH OPERATIONAL MODELS
   /GFS AND NAM/ SHOW AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL MOTION AND CORRESPONDING
   PRECIPITATION BY 12Z AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING OVER
   GA. 
   
   LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEDGE OF HIGH
   PRESSURE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE TEENS
   ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS NE GA...WITH WET BULB
   TEMPS MAINLY BELOW 32 DEGREES. EVAPORATIVE COOLING EFFECTS WILL
   ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO FALL TO FREEZING ONCE PRECIPITATION BEGINS. NCEP
   SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FZRA RAIN WILL BE
   BETWEEN 09-15Z IN A CORRIDOR FROM GRD/CAE/CLT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   ACROSS WRN NC INDICATE THAT PCPN MAY BEGIN AS SLEET AND CHANGE TO
   FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS THE WAA INCREASES.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 01/18/2007
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
   FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...
   
   34097979 33128202 33978367 34948410 35488384 36208197
   36248073 35797925 35097923