MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0052
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0326 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 132126Z - 132330Z
   
   ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING
   COLD FRONT DEVELOPING TOWARD THE SE TX COASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION TO
   AREAS OF POST-FRONTAL HEAVY RAIN...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR SEVERE
   WIND GUST CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED
   AT THIS TIME.
   
   SHARP COLD FRONT WAS ALONG A 30NW LFK-40SE CLL-20N VCT-20SW SAT LINE
   AT 21Z. CONTINUED STRONG INFLUX OF HIGH THETA-E AIR INTO AND ACROSS
   THE FRONTAL SURFACE WAS RESULTING IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS
   GENERALLY FROM AROUND I10 NWD TO BETWEEN I35 AND I45. A COUPLE OF
   ISOLATED STRONGER UPDRAFTS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN THE WARM
   SECTOR N OF VCT...OVER LAVACA AND COLORADO COUNTIES... AND NW OF
   HOU...OVER GRIMES COUNTY. THIS CONVECTION NOW APPEARS TO BE
   TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE SURFACE FRONT AND WAS BECOMING UNDERCUT BY
   SURFACE-BASED POST-FRONTAL COLD DOME. A BRIEF TORNADO HAZARD COULD
   EVOLVE IF NEW STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND TRACK ALONG/NEAR THE FRONT FROM
   N OF VCT TO AROUND HUNTSVILLE/UTS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ANY
   DISCRETE SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION TRACKING NEWD OVER THESE AREAS MAY
   REMAIN PREFERENTIALLY ORIENTED TO BOTH RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
   INFLOW...AND HIGH SHEAR AS RECENTLY DEPICTED IN LDB PROFILER WINDS.
   A BRIEF TORNADO COULD ALSO OCCUR AS STRONGER UPDRAFTS CROSS THE
   FRONTAL SURFACE AND ENCOUNTER VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE
   STORM UPDRAFT LAYER. CURRENTLY...THE POTENTIAL AND DURATION OF ANY
   SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A WATCH. BUT ACTIVITY IN
   THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT WILL PERSIST AS PRONOUNCED LIFT ON AND
   NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT PROMOTES REPEAT/BACKBUILDING DEEP
   CONVECTION. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
   FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES
   ACROSS MUCH OF ERN TX INTO THIS EVENING.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 01/13/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
   
   31489502 31169492 29779539 29279576 28889622 28629689
   28399753 28459808 28559832 28839860 29039887 29699942
   29909906 30319817 31539734 31859640 31809565