MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0038
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0533 AM CST MON JAN 08 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN VA/ERN NC INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 081133Z - 081300Z
   
   THREAT EXISTS FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS..AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
   ACROSS ERN NC INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS NWD TO SERN VA UNTIL 14-15Z.
   GIVEN LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND SMALL AREAL COVERAGE OF
   THIS THREAT...A WW IS UNLIKELY.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A COUPLE OF LINES OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION
   EXTENDING FROM SERN VA TO ERN NC AND SWD TO ABOUT 70 MILES E OF THE
   SC COAST.  DESPITE THE LACK OF LIGHTNING...A VERY MOIST PRE-FRONTAL
   AIR MASS IS SUPPORTING MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  STRONG WINDS EVIDENT
   PER AREA WSR-88D VADS WITH 40-50 KT SSWLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE
   SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE
   PRODUCING AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT.  IN ADDITION...09Z RUC
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYER IS AT THE
   SURFACE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH SRH VALUES FAVORABLE FOR
   STORM ROTATION.  THUS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST
   ACROSS ERN NC/SERN VA...PRIOR TO VEERING SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
   WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE AFTER 15Z.
   
   ..PETERS.. 01/08/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...
   
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