MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0641
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0318 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL/EASTERN KS INTO FAR WESTERN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 242018Z - 242215Z
   
   SEVERE POTENTIAL /WITH PRIMARY HAZARD OF LARGE HAIL/ IS EXPECTED TO
   INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/EASTERN
   KS...AND PERHAPS FAR WESTERN MO/FAR SOUTHEAST NEB. A WATCH MAY BE
   NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
   
   THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
   CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KS...AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF FAR
   SOUTHEAST NEB/WESTERN MO...THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
   THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BOTH IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
   ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE FROM WEST CENTRAL KS INTO WEST CENTRAL
   IA...BUT ALSO WITH WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE RESIDUAL COLD POOL ACROSS
   EASTERN KS VIA EARLY DAY CONVECTION. WITHIN THIS
   CORRIDOR...POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE CONVECTION APPEARS
   LIMITED...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT. ACCORDINGLY...ELEVATED
   CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY BE PREDOMINANT...WITH A PRIMARY HAZARD
   OF LARGE HAIL. RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS PORTRAY ELEVATED MUCAPE OF
   500-1000 J/KG IN PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE/STRONG CLOUD
   BEARING SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
   
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