MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2533
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0541 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 101141Z - 101415Z
   
   BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS IS FCST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS NRN FL PENINSULA
   THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z...AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT.  BRIEF SPIN-UP OF
   DAMAGING BOW OR SUPERCELL TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THREAT
   APPEARS LIMITED ENOUGH IN SPACE AND TIME THAT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
   ATTM.
   
   SFC FLOW HAS VEERED ACROSS THIS AREA...REDUCING CONVERGENCE SOMEWHAT
   AND ALSO REDUCING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR CONTRIBUTION TO LOW LEVEL
   HODOGRAPH SIZE.  THIS TREND IS FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDMORNING
   GIVEN RETREAT OF STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING AWAY FROM
   REGION...ACROSS TIDEWATER/MID-ATLANTIC STATES. HOWEVER...FOR
   ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS THERE REMAINS ENOUGH SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO
   SUPPORT SUPERCELL/BOW POTENTIAL.  DESPITE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
   FLOW...JAX VWP SUPPORTS 0-1 KM SRH 200-300 J/KG FOR ANY TSTMS MOVING
   20-30 DEG RIGHTWARD OF MEAN WIND...OR JUST N OF DUE E. ONE CAVEAT
   MAY BE SFC-BASED CINH ESTIMATED TO BE STRONGER THAN FARTHER N OVER
   WW 920...BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING 500-800 M AGL MOST
   UNSTABLE LIFTED PARCEL.  EXPECT SEVERE POTENTIAL TO DIMINISH WITH
   PASSAGE OF CONVECTIVE BAND AND WITH TIME AS CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO
   WEAKEN.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 12/10/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
   29688346 30378241 30738195 30738150 30538137 29818128
   29008165 28698245 29178315