MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2481
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1039 PM CST FRI NOV 26 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX...EXTREME NWRN LA...ERN OK AND WRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 270439Z - 270545Z
   
   A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN TX
   NEWD INTO WRN AR AND ERN OK THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  UNLESS THERE IS AN
   INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION...A WW WILL NOT BE ISSUED.
   
   TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO EXPAND IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF A WEAK
   NORTH-SOUTH INSTABILITY AXIS SITUATED ACROSS ERN TX AND ERN OK THIS
   EVENING.  THE LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR STORM
   ORGANIZATION...BUT SINCE THE BUOYANCY IS WEAK...UPDRAFTS ARE HAVING
   A TOUGH TIME ORGANIZING.
   
   THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT NOW APPEARS TO BE HAIL...PRIMARILY ACROSS
   NERN TX INTO ERN OK/WRN AR.  STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING
   EWD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH EARLY
   MORNING SATURDAY...PROVIDING A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR HAIL
   PRODUCTION.
   
   ..RACY.. 11/27/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...
   
   29989702 35189533 36029454 35629368 34819300 32479355
   30029406 29809552