MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2468
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0330 PM CST WED NOV 24 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SRN GA...EXTREME N-CENTRAL/NWRN FL
   PENINSULA...W-CENTRAL/NW FL COAST
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 904...
   
   VALID 242130Z - 242330Z
   
   TWO CONVECTIVE LINES OF CONCERN:
   1. EXTENDING FROM S-CENTRAL GA SWD ACROSS ERN APALACHEE BAY THEN
   SWWD ACROSS GULF...AND
   2. RELATIVELY NEW BAND OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM NEAR CTY SSWWD
   OFFSHORE W-CENTRAL FL COAST...AS OF 2115Z.  WILL MONITOR FOR
   POSSIBLE WW...ALTHOUGH SPATIAL EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS
   LIMITED ALONG W-CENTRAL/NW FL COAST.
   
   WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH FIRST LINE AS
   IT MOVES EWD THROUGH REMAINDER EXTREME ERN FL PANHANDLE AND NWRN
   FL...MERGING WITH SECOND LINE NEAR CTY.  VWP AND RUC SOUNDING DATA
   INDICATE KINEMATIC PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE OVER NWRN FL WITH 40-50
   KT 0-6 KM SHEAR...WHICH WILL SUPPORT BOWING STRUCTURE. AIRMASS WILL
    LOSE BUOYANCY WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS NRN FL...BECAUSE OF
   COMBINATION OF SFC DIABATIC HEAT LOSS AND MIDLEVEL STABLE LAYER
   NOTED IN 18Z JAX RAOB. THEREFORE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS ACTIVITY
   NEARS ERN EDGE OF WW...AND ANOTHER WW FARTHER E MAY NOT BE
   NECESSARY.
   
   SECOND BAND OF CONVECTION BREAKS INTO DISCRETE STORMS -- INCLUDING
   SOME POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS -- OVER GULF. EXPECT TSTMS TO MOVE ONSHORE
   AROUND 23Z-00Z N OF PIE...AND AFTER 00Z FARTHER S.  FOREGOING AIR
   MASS OVER IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH SFC DEW
   POINTS IN UPPER 60S/LOW 70S...HOWEVER THETAE WILL DIMINISH WITH
   INLAND EXTENT AND WITH TIME.  PRIND SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST OVER
   COASTAL COUNTIES BUT NOT VERY FAR INLAND.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 11/24/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
   31778368 31758162 29028280 28998477 
   
   29528254 29278235 28868223 28418224 27788260 27608281
   27728303 28158311 28988283