MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2348
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0809 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NW/N CNTRL TX/WCNTRL OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 221309Z - 221515Z
   
   ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTRL TX AND
   WCNTRL OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR
   AS THE ACTIVITY SPREADS NEWD THIS MORNING.
   
   12Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRYLINE IN PLACE FROM NEAR MIDLAND
   EXTENDING NNEWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. EAST OF THE DRYLINE...SFC
   DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F BUT THE AIRMASS IS STRONGLY CAPPED. THIS
   WILL KEEP STORMS ELEVATED AS THEY DEVELOP JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
   DRYLINE. THE STORMS SOUTHEAST OF LBB ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER
   OF A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
   HOURS. THE 12Z SOUNDING AT MAF SHOWS ABOUT 50 KT OF CLOUD LAYER
   SHEAR AND THIS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
   STORMS CONSIDERING MUCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG. THE AMOUNT OF
   INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGEST A HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL
   MAY EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 10/22/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   32370104 32900072 35009910 36729767 37159720 36529664
   35249750 33319907 32070026