MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2294
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0515 PM CDT MON OCT 04 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM AND PARTS OF WEST TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 042215Z - 050045Z
   
   PARTS OF SERN NM AND WEST TX ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING
   POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING.
   
   ISOLD TSTMS HAVE INITIATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF ERN
   EDDY AND WRN LEA COUNTIES IN SERN NM. THIS REGION IS BEING MONITORED
   FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING. STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   ACROSS FAR WEST TX INTO SERN NM HAS ENHANCED MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
   ACROSS THE REGION. MOIST AIRMASS AND HEATING IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
   MCS HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH
   LATEST MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
   ACROSS THE AREA EITHER NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY UNFAVORABLE...FOCUS FOR
   ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FAVORED ALONG THE OUTFLOW OR INVOF
   TERRAIN FEATURES. IF MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS CAN DEVELOP...DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR OF 35-45KT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH AN INCREASING
   THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
   SUGGESTS GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH STORM COVERAGE STILL UNCERTAIN...A WATCH
   IS NOT IMMINENT.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 10/04/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
   
   31180264 31460479 32280529 33180552 33520513 33590425
   33320282 32620185 31650180