MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2280
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0123 PM CDT THU SEP 30 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...WRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 301823Z - 302030Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY OVER THE NEXT 1
   TO 2 HOURS.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS IN PLACE FROM JUST WEST OF
   MAF EXTENDING NWD ALONG THE TX-NM STATE-LINE WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
   IN THE LOWER 60S F. THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
   NWD THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SHORT CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY
   LOCATED IN SOUTHEAST NM. MLCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN VERY SLOWLY DUE TO
   CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAF VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS STRONG
   DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 2KM WITH 35 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   WHICH SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR ROTATING STORMS. COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS
   ARE SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EWD
   ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS COMBINED WITH MORE SFC HEATING THIS
   AFTERNOON DUE TO THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
   ACROSS ERN NM AND WEST TX. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR LARGE
   HAIL WITH SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ALSO
   POSSIBLE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 09/30/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
   
   34650217 33020259 31500372 31310504 31990541 33640460
   35200388 35520266