MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2167
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0442 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN MN AND WRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 052142Z - 052345Z
   
   PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN MN...NORTH OF TORNADO WATCH 801...MAY NEED TO
   BE COVERED BY ANOTHER WATCH AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO THE
   REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED INTO CNTRL MN ATTM AND WAS SITUATED ROUGHLY
   ALONG A FMM TO JMR LINE. A N-S PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE INTERSECTED
   THE WARM FRONT OVER NRN TODD AND WRN WADENA COUNTIES WITH MOST
   ACTIVE CELLS BASED ON LTG DATA CURRENTLY OCCURRING TO THE NORTH OF
   THE WARM FRONT. DESPITE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...THE LINE OF
   CONVECTION WAS MOVING INTO SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY SITUATED
   ACROSS ECNTRL MN. LATEST FCST SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING STRONG AND DEEP
   SLY FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE WITH MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR
   SUPERCELLS. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE ONGOING LINE CAN POSE A
   SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND OR TORNADO THREAT GIVEN ITS ORIENTATION TO
   THE MEAN FLOW. HOWEVER...STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE SHORT TERM
   WILL PROBABLY EXIST NEAR THE FRONT/SQUALL LINE INTERSECTION AND
   STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ROTATION. SURFACE
   LOW DEVELOPING INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD
   ENHANCE SHEAR PROFILES AND PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR ADDITIONAL
   CONVECTION. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF THIS TREND TOWARD GREATER STORM
   ORGANIZATION APPEARS MORE LIKELY.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 09/05/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...
   
   45279573 45349639 47029633 47539347 47599259 46019211
   45199216