MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2139
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1103 AM CDT SAT AUG 28 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 281603Z - 281830Z
   
   SEVERE TSTMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   APPEAR TO BE AN INCREASING THREAT ACROSS PARTS SERN MO AND CNTRL/ERN
   SECTIONS OF AR INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL WATCH AHEAD OF ONGOING
   STORMS MAY BE NEEDED IF ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY.
   
   MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX AND ASSOCIATED WELL DEVELOPED CONVECTIVE
   COLD POOL CONTINUE TO DRIVE DEEP CONVECTION EAST ACROSS THE OZARKS
   AND WRN AR THIS MORNING WELL AHEAD OF DEEPER SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE.
   THE SQUALL LINE HAS BEEN MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 20KT WITH ADDITIONAL
   DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/OUTFLOW ACROSS SRN
   MO. ALL OF THESE STORMS REMAIN IN A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT PER
   MORNING SOUNDINGS AND MORE RECENT VWP DATA. HOWEVER...INTENSE
   SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE ONGOING STORMS...AND SMALL MID LEVEL
   WIND MAX OF ABOUT 30KT ASSOCIATED WITH MCV APPROACHING FROM
   OK...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRIMARY HAZARD SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING
   WINDS FROM MULTICELL STORMS ALIGNED ALONG THE OUTFLOW...OR NEAR
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS. A FEW ISOLD MARGINAL HAIL REPORTS
   ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. IF CURRENT INTENSITY TRENDS CONTINUE...A WATCH
   MAY BE NEEDED.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 08/28/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...
   
   37918974 36878942 35468984 33939095 33689186 33729283
   33809360 34079426 35669307 36299302 37319298