MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2073
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0406 PM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL ND INTO N-CNTRL SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 212106Z - 212230Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH DEVELOPING
   STORMS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   TSTMS HAVE SLOWLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO FROM WRN
   BURLEIGH COUNTY SWWD INTO CNTRL GRANT COUNTY MOVING E AT 35-40KT.
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING FROM
   SURFACE LOW SWWD ALONG PRESSURE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT...AND ALONG
   LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS HAS WARMED WELL INTO THE
   80S AND WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS
   RESULTING IN MLCAPES AROUND 300-400 J/KG. RELATIVELY FAST STORM
   MOTIONS AND DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
   CELLS. MEAGER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT INSTABILITY
   AND OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..MEAD.. 08/21/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...
   
   45870200 47110110 47580015 47549878 46939854 45929841
   44989870 44769991 44940129 45300193