MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2052
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0550 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN MO / SRN IL / SWRN IND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 192250Z - 200015Z
   
   STORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS SERN
   MO AND INTO SRN IL.  A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL
   AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.  WE WILL
   CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION...ALTHOUGH WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   LATEST RADAR / SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE
   STORMS ACROSS SRN IL ATTM...WHERE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE
   IS INDICATED.  MODEST /AROUND 30 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS
   REGION IS SUPPORTING SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION / LONGEVITY...BUT
   ATTM IT APPEARS THAT ONLY A 2 TO 3 HOUR WINDOW OF APPRECIABLE SEVERE
   THREAT EXISTS BEFORE DIURNAL STABILIZATION BEGINS.
   
   ALTHOUGH STORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATER THIS
   EVENING...EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE AS UPPER FEATURE MOVES
   NEWD OUT OF NERN OK AND 30 TO 35 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS /
   SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THIS REGION.
   
   ..GOSS.. 08/19/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...
   
   38129115 38738896 38588709 38118700 37408838 36939060
   37089173 37499173