MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1933
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0506 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AZ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 092206Z - 100000Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING.  
   
   18Z PHOENIX RAOB SHOWS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...WITH
   PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.20 INCH.  MODERATE
   INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE SRN PART OF THE STATE...WITH 100 MB
   MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG.
   
   VERY HOT TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 105 HAVE ERODED MOST OF THE
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THEREFORE...IT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY EASY TO
   DEVELOP NEW CONVECTION ON ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  CONVECTION NOW
   OVER ERN RIM IS SENDING OUTFLOW WWD...AND NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
   POSSIBLE ON THESE BOUNDARIES.
   
   IN ADDITION...AREA VWPS INDICATE ELY FLOW OF 5-15 KTS SEVERAL KM
   DEEP OVER SRN NM AND SERN AZ...WHILE IWA RADAR INDICATES WLY FLOW. 
   THUS...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITHIN THIS CONVERGENT
   ZONE.  GIVEN LARGE AMOUNTS OF DCAPE AVAILABLE AROUND  1800 J/KG...AT
   LEAST A FEW SEVERE AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 08/09/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
   
   31581180 31851248 34001247 34181206 34161136 33991081
   33821040 32371051 31361070 31331105