MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1780
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0610 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SCNTRL/SW AZ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 
   
   VALID 262310Z - 270115Z
   
   TSTMS MAY EVOLVE SSW INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SCNTRL/SW AZ
   THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH ISOLD MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE...IN
   ADDITION TO A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT. A SEVERE WATCH IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.
   
   TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
   CNTRL AZ. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ORGANIZED MESOSCALE COLD POOLS
   AMIDST MARGINAL STEERING FLOW -- CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN N/NW WINDS
   AROUND 10 KTS -- WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A PROPAGATION OF ISOLD TSTMS
   ONTO THE DESERT FLOOR. OBSERVED 21Z PHX SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR 23Z
   AMBIENT SFC CONDITIONS PORTRAYS AROUND 1100 J/KG MEAN MIXED CAPE IN
   THE LOWER DESERTS. WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER /40-45F DELTA SFC T-TD/
   AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE AROUND 1200 J/KG SUGGESTS ISOLD
   MICROBURST/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
   
   IN ADDITION...MOIST AIRMASS /1.38 IN PW PER 21Z PHX RAOB/ AND
   RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL SUPPORT A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
   THREAT.
   
   ..GUYER.. 07/26/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...
   
   34181290 33831161 33091066 32551068 32621155 32801232
   33341345 33881412 34401378