MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1776
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0446 PM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL/SCNTRL AZ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 
   
   VALID 252146Z - 252345Z
   
   TSTM CLUSTERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWWD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO
   PORTIONS OF WCNTRL/SCNTRL AZ...WITH POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH WW NOT
   ANTICIPATED...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH
   REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON.
   
   MODIFIED 18Z PHX SOUNDING FOR AMBIENT SFC CONDITIONS SUGGESTS AROUND
   1000 J/KG MLCAPE INVOF PHOENIX METRO AREA/INTERSTATE 10
   CORRIDOR...PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING TO AOA 1500-2000 J/KG INVOF
   INTERSTATE 8 CORRIDOR OF SW AZ. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...EVOLVING COLD
   POOLS AND E/NE MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW OF 10-15 KTS /EVIDENT IN 18Z
   PHX SOUNDING AND LOCAL 88D VAD/ MAY SUPPORT SWWD PROPAGATION OF TSTM
   CLUSTERS INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WCNTRL/SCNTRL AZ LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON.
   
   GIVEN EXPECTED EVOLUTION...MICROBURSTS/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE OWING TO WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY 40-50F
   SFC TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SUPPORTED
   BY HIGH PRECIP WATER CONTENT AROUND 1.4 IN AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS.
   IN ADDITION...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST
   VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 07/25/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...
   
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