MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1695
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0541 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD INTO CNTRL/SRN MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 152241Z - 160015Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
   THE AREA AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
   
   STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR
   OR SO FROM PORTIONS OF ERN ND INTO CNTRL MN /NE OF AXN/ AHEAD OF
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD THROUGH NRN MN. THOUGH DOWNSTREAM
   AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/SRN MN IS ONLY WEAKLY TO MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG...CURRENT WOOD LAKE PROFILER
   SUGGESTS THAT AS STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE S...INFLOW SOURCE REGION
   WILL LIKELY BE MORE STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS ERN SD
   WHERE MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 2500 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...
   THIS PROFILER INDICATES RELATIVELY LONG HODOGRAPH WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
   OF 50-55KTS. IF STORMS CAN TAP AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER AIRMASS OVER
   ERN SD...DEGREE OF SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   STORMS MAY ATTEMPT TO CONGEAL INTO FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS THIS
   EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WWD DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE INTO STRONGER CAP
   OVER ERN SD. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE
   REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR.
   
   ..MEAD.. 07/15/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...
   
   46219789 46109300 43529303 43589783