MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1657
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0951 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN WY/SW SD/WRN NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 624...
   
   VALID 140251Z - 140415Z
   
   WW 624 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 03Z. ALTHOUGH ISOLD
   SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ADDITIONAL
   WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED NE/E OF WW 624.
   
   UPSLOPE REGIME CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
   THE WRN HIGH PLAINS OF WY INTO SW SD/NRN NEB PANHANDLE. STRONGEST
   ACTIVITY REMAINS ON NRN PERIPHERY OF WW 624 EARLY THIS
   EVENING...WITH MODEST E/SE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BENEATH 30 KT MID
   LEVEL WLY FLOW SUPPORTING ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS ALONG NRN
   EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS. 
   
   ALTHOUGH FORWARD PROPAGATION OF TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE THROUGH SW SD/NEB PANHANDLE THIS EVENING OWING TO
   UPSLOPE/STRONGLY SHEARED REGIME...BARRING ORGANIZED COLD POOL
   DEVELOPMENT...THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS OWING TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
   
   ..GUYER.. 07/14/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...
   
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