MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1389
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1155 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA/NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 231655Z - 231900Z
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
   ORF/DAN/TRI/CSV...WHILE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
   WIDESPREAD CLOUDS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BAND AND/OR WARM
   CONVEYOR BELT CIRRUS. SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS GREATEST ACROSS SERN
   VA AND CNTR/ERN NC...WHERE DIURNAL HEATING IS ALLOWING FOR
   DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. SFC BASED CUMULUS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM
   AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...HINTING THAT INHIBITION IS QUICKLY
   WEAKENING AND SBCAPE VALUES ARE RISING INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG
   RANGE. 
   
   LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE INCREASING TO AROUND 7.0 C/KM PER LATEST
   ANALYSIS DATA. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE AROUND 30-35 KT...WHICH IS MORE
   THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STRONG STORMS TO FORM. VAD WIND DATA
   FROM ROANOKE SHOW ABOUT 35 KT DEEP LAYER MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
   SHEAR. THIS PROFILE ALONG WITH LINEAR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   COLD FRONT WILL TEND TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED LINES/CLUSTERS OF
   STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM DAMAGING WINDS OR MARGINALLY
   LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 06/23/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...
   
   37117603 37627830 36298090 35228133 34737975 33957839
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