MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1293
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0707 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN NEB...ERN SD...NW IA AND SW MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478...
   
   VALID 160007Z - 160100Z
   
   WW 478 REMAINS LARGELY FREE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND
   UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING ADDITIONAL INITIATION IN MUCH OF
   THIS AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR NEXT HOUR OR SO...AND IF
   ADDITIONAL STORMS FAIL TO DEVELOP...WW 478 MIGHT BE CANCELLED
   BEFORE ITS EXPIRATION TIME OF 03Z.
   
   THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD THROUGH SERN SD INTO NRN NEB
   FROM A SURFACE LOW IN ERN SD. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SEWD FROM THIS
   LOW THROUGH ERN SD INTO SW MN AND NW IA. BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS
   CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND NEW STORMS MAY
   STILL DEVELOP. HOWEVER...INITIAL SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPED OVER ERN
   SD HAS DISSIPATED. LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FARTHER
   NE ACROSS CNTRL/NRN MN IN RESPONSE TO EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET
   MIGRATING EWD ACROSS NRN ND AND MN. THIS SUGGESTS STRONGER MASS
   INFLOW AND FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED FARTHER NE INTO THE COOLER LESS
   STABLE REGIME. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING LOWERS
   CONFIDENCE THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND
   PERSIST IN WW 478.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/16/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...
   
   43559498 42469522 42179659 42429795 42889811 44309792
   44769711 44749527