MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1237
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0933 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL KS...WRN AND CENTRAL OK...NWRN/NCENTRAL TX
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 448...
   
   VALID 130233Z - 130430Z
   
   PORTIONS OF WW 448 WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE REPLACED WITH A NEW WW
   BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME OF 04Z...WITH SOME POTENTIAL THAT MUCH OF WW
   448 WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED.
   
   DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH FORWARD PROPAGATING
   MCS AS IT MOVES ENEWD AROUND 45 KTS FROM NORTH OF ABI/SW OF SPS INTO
   THE SERN PORTION OF WW 448 JACK/WISE AND CLAY COUNTIES BY AROUND
   04Z. STRENGTH OF COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE AND MINIMAL
   INHIBITION NOTED ON THE FWD SOUNDING...SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE
   THREAT THAT WILL LAST AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS BEYOND 04Z INTO
   NCENTRAL TX WHERE A NEW WW WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED BEFORE 04Z.
   
   
   FARTHER NORTH...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NWRN TX CONVECTION HAS BEEN
   INTERSECTING A OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE SERN TX
   PANHANDLE AND NEW STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING IN THIS
   AREA. NWD PROGRESS OF NEW DEVELOPMENT WHERE THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   WILL MOVE NWD INTO ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
   THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
   CONVECTION MAY BE MAINTAINED FOR QUITE SOME TIME THIS EVENING OVER
   WRN OK IF DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
   
   ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SUPERCELL OVER BUTLER/COWLEY COUNTY LINE WILL
   CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AROUND 15 KTS WITH THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES
   CONTINUING AS IT MOVES INTO WW 454. CONVECTION MOVING ESEWD OUT OF
   CENTRAL KS MAY BACKBUILD SWD INTO SCENTRAL KS OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. THUS THIS AREA MAY AS WELL NEED TO BE PUT INTO A REPLACEMENT
   SEVERE WW BEFORE 04Z.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/13/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD...ABR...
   
   44359595 44819637 45599617 45719524 45849291 45999152
   45269098 44239216