MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1116
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0109 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 061809Z - 062045Z
   
   WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF WRN AND CENTRAL ND AROUND 20Z.
   
   VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT STRONG FORCING ON THE NOSE OF UPPER
   LEVEL JET WAS AIDING IN RAPID ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BASED
   AROUND 700 MB OVER FAR NWRN/NCENTRAL ND. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD
   REMAIN ELEVATED IN NATURE DUE TO THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER FARTHER
   EAST OVER NCENTRAL/NERN ND...THIS ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO POSE A
   THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...SINCE
   CLOUD BEARING LAYER SHEAR FROM 30-35 KTS ABOVE 700 MB SHOULD BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION. HOWEVER MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
   SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY.
   
   FARTHER WEST SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED TO
   OCCUR BY 21Z OVER WRN ND...AS HINTS OF CU ARE SHOWING UP AHEAD OF A
   COLD FRONT IN NERN MT AT 18Z. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS/RISES NOTED ON
   RECENT SFC ANALYSES WILL MAINTAIN STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE
   TROUGH AND COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES FROM FAR ERN MT INTO WRN ND OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH CINH IS STILL AROUND 100 J/KG AT
   18Z...TEMPERATURES ONLY NEED TO REACH THE MID 80S WHILE MAINTAINING
   DEWPTS IN THE LOWER-MID 50S TO REMOVE THIS CINH. THUS CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY IN THE 21-22Z TIME FRAME GIVEN CURRENT
   18Z TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY
   TAKE LONGEST OVER SWRN/SCENTRAL ND THIS AFTERNOON...AS GREATER MID
   LEVEL CINH EXISTS SOUTH OF MID LEVEL JET AXIS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/06/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...
   
   45970333 47480382 48990333 48989808 48449744 45939883