MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1083
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0213 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AND NCENTRAL TX...THE ERN  TX PANHANDLE AND
   FAR WRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 041913Z - 042115Z
   
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE SW OF THE SPS
   AREA...AND MAY DEVELOP AS FAR NWD AS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE BY 21Z.
   MODERATE MID LEVEL SHEAR ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING MCV OVER
   CENTRAL OK ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT ANY STORMS
   THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL
   BY 21Z. A WW MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY.
   
   LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT TOWERING CU WAS DEVELOPING IN THE
   VICINITY OF A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR CDS SEWD TO STEPHENS
   COUNTY. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA INDICATE BETWEEN
   2000-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND 30-35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AS A
   BELT OF 25-30 KT MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW EXTENDS OVER THE AREA ON THE SW
   SIDE OF AN MCV OVER CENTRAL OK. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
   MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT..AT LEAST WELL ORGANIZED
   MULTICELL  STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE
   DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. DEVELOPMENT IS MOST LIKELY TO THE SW OF SPS
   AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH MCV OVER
   OK. NWLY FLOW WILL TAKE THESE STORMS INTO NCENTRAL TX BY LATE
   AFTERNOON. DESPITE STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NERN TX
   PANHANDLE WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/DRYLINE INTERSECTION WAS
   OCCURRING...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MCV OVER OK AND/OR
   WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO GREAT FOR INITIATION TO
   OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/04/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...
   
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