MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0852
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0632 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI...ERN IL...NRN IND...NWRN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 264...
   
   VALID 232332Z - 240130Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR SPELLING
   
   COMPLEX MESOANALYSIS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REVEALS PRIMARY
   SURFACE CYCLONE WAS SITUATED ACROSS SRN WI WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK
   FRONTAL WAVES EXIST ALONG STRONGLY CURVED AND SEGMENTED WARM FRONT
   FROM THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE MI...ACROSS SCNTRL MI...TO THE ST.
   CLAIR RIVER/WRN LAKE ERIE. TSTM COMPLEX NOW MOVING ACROSS ERN LOWER
   MI APPEARS LINKED TO FRONTAL WAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE THUMB AREA.
   A FEW SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN CO-LOCATED WITH THIS IMPULSE. FARTHER
   WEST...CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND HEAVY RAIN HAVE STABILIZED THE
   AIRMASS OVER SRN LOWER MI BUT SLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
   OF THE MAIN LOW WERE RESULTING IN AIRMASS RECOVERY FROM NERN IL
   ACROSS NRN IND. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
   ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT AS FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND
   SURFACE LOW MOVE EAST LATER THIS EVENING.
   
   ADDITIONALLY...STRONG CELLS HAVE ERUPTED OFF THE WARM FRONT AND
   MOVED OVER CNTRL LAKE MI OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
   LIKELY MOVE ACROSS AREAS OF NRN LOWER MI...NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM
   FRONT...OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/23/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...
   
   41958811 43378263 41508264 40038813