MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0711
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0727 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NERN NEB AND SERN SD
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 
   
   VALID 170027Z - 170330Z
   
   HEAVY RAIN RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HOUR -- LOCALLY APCHG 3
   INCHES/HOUR...ARE POSSIBLE WITH EITHER OF TWO SEVERE TSTM CLUSTERS
   PRESENTLY OVER CENTRAL/NERN NEB.  MCS SHOULD EVOLVE FROM THIS
   ACTIVITY AND CONTINUE HEAVY RAIN THREAT NEWD ACROSS MO VALLEY LATER
   THIS EVENING.  THIS IS IN ADDITION TO SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL
   REPRESENTED BY WW 208 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS.
   
   MODIFIED OAX RAOB AND REGIONAL RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE JUST
   ABOUT 1 INCH PW...HOWEVER DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FOCUS 50-60
   KT LLJ INTO THIS ACTIVITY...ENHANCING S-R INFLOW AND PRECIP
   EFFICIENCY.  SLOW MOVEMENT OF TSTMS AND POTENTIAL FOR MERGERS WILL
   AUGMENT HEAVY RAIN THREAT.  WSW-ENE ORIENTATION OF BOTH CONVECTIVE
   AREAS -- FIRST FROM BOONE TO CUSTER/DAWSON COUNTY AND SECOND FROM
   KNOX TO LOUP COUNTIES -- IS CONDUCIVE TO ECHO TRAINING.  BOTH
   CLUSTERS CONTAIN SUPERCELLS WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY PRECIP
   LIKELY...AND ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EWD AND NEWD FROM PRESENT
   POSITIONS TOWARD OLU...YKN AND OFK AREAS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/17/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
   
   41389644 41189697 40979919 40939965 41169953 41629900
   41839859 41929867 41939910 41899937 41999940 42659845
   43139736 43209697 43099672 42749662 41619635