MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0708
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0302 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS/SWRN NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 162002Z - 162130Z
   
   SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE ON THE INCRS ACROSS THE CNTRL
   HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED OVER THE REGION
   SHORTLY.
   
   DRYLINE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED LAST 2 HOURS OVER ERN CO AND WAS
   MIXING EAST TOWARD WRN KS. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE HAS
   CONTINUED TO MOISTEN AND WARM WITH LATEST RUC POINT FCST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGESTING MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG...AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION. EXPECT CU FIELD SOUTH OF GLD TO DEVELOP INTO TSTMS OVER
   THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH CONVECTION INCREASING IN INTENSITY AS
   GREATER INSTABILITY IS TAPPED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF
   SUPERCELLS. RELATIVELY WEAK LINEAR FORCING WOULD FAVOR DISCRETE
   CELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/16/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
   
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