MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0704
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0505 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MID ATLANTIC TO SRN NEW ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 152205Z - 152330Z
   
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
   /UNTIL ABOUT 01Z/ FROM NRN MD NEWD TO MA/SRN NH.
   
   21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM VT SWWD
   ACROSS ERN NY TO SOUTH CENTRAL PA TO WV.  AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF
   THIS FRONT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
   THE MID 60S AND SURFACE HEATING HAVE RESULTED IN MLCAPE UP TO 1000
   J/KG.  STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND OVER THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION
   OF SWLY MID-LEVEL JET. VAD WINDS FROM CENTRAL PA TO NRN VT INDICATE
   35-40 KT WSWLY WINDS IN THE LAYER FROM 2-4 KM. THESE WIND SPEEDS
   COMBINED WITH 20-30 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN ADVANCE
   OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS MD/DE TO SRN
   NEW ENGLAND.  STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING AN ORGANIZED SEVERE
   THREAT IS LOCATED POST-FRONTAL PER 18Z RUC...THUS ANY SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS WILL BE ISOLATED WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY ALONG/AHEAD OF
   THE COLD FRONT.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/15/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...
   
   43487122 42997071 41987104 41647161 41227319 40837358
   40167401 39327464 38727519 38707647 39007758 39747726
   40617637 41207540 41937478 42697330