MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0635
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0214 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE OH...NW PA AND WRN NY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 101914Z - 102145Z
   
   SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ACROSS NE OH
   THROUGH WRN NY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE
   MAIN THREATS.
   
   THIS AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEGUN TO DESTABILIZE IN WAKE OF
   MORNING CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO
   THE 80S MLCAPE SHOULD APPROACH 1500 J/KG. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW
   BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS INCREASING FROM NE OH THROUGH NW PA AND WRN
   NY ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. GIVEN WEAK CAP...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP AND INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL
   NATURE OF THE FLOW IS LIMITING THE 0-6 KM SHEAR TO GENERALLY AROUND
   30 KT. HOWEVER...THIS AREA IS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER
   WESTERLIES WITH 30-40 KT OF FLOW BETWEEN 1 AND 6 KM. STORMS MAY
   ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY SPREAD EWD WITH THREAT FOR
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALSO APPEAR
   SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR HAIL.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/10/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
   
   42417912 43107737 43187587 42077582 40898068 41268151