MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0435
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0623 PM CDT THU APR 22 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/WRN AR AND EXTREME SWRN MO AND NRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 104...105...
   
   VALID 222323Z - 230030Z
   
   NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   
   THE GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL IS IN EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
   ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF AN OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
   EXTENDS FROM SEQUOYAH COUNTY NWWD INTO MUSKOGEE AND WAGONER
   COUNTIES. ALSO...THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO INTERSECT THE FRONT IN
   WAGONER COUNTY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS IS MORE MOIST NORTH THAN
   SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND THE ELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE
   RESULTING IN STRONGER 1KM SHEAR ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.
   SOME OF THESE POTENTIALLY TORNADIC STORMS WILL BE MOVING/ DEVELOPING
   INTO NWRN AR AND EXTREME SWRN MO DURING THE EVENING.
   
   NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS EXTEND ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM 40 WNW FYV TO
   45 E OKC TO 50 ESE SPS. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT AS
   STRONG AS IN NERN OK...STRONGER HEATING AND INSTABILITY COMBINED
   WITH 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR INDICATES THAT HAIL FROM 3/4 TO 2
   INCHES IS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS...AND PERHAPS EVEN A BRIEF
   TORNADO.
   
   ..IMY.. 04/22/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   33349836 35599668 36639498 36839267 33989369 33789528
   33069601 
   
   35439443 36059551 36239524 36759433 36539393