MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0389
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1104 PM CDT MON APR 19 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES...NW OK...PORTIONS SWRN/CENTRAL KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 92...
   
   VALID 200404Z - 200530Z
   
   DEVELOPING MCS -- WHICH CONTAINS SEVERAL EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS --
   SHOULD SHIFT NNEWD FROM TX/OK PANHANDLES AND NW OK ACROSS
   SWRN/S-CENTRAL KS THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z. POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR
   DEVELOPMENT OF MORE DISCRETE STORMS -- INCLUDING SUPERCELLS -- ALONG
   AND E OF DRYLINE.  DRYLINE SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY FOR ANOTHER
   2-3 HOURS FROM JUST E CAO NWD ACROSS CIMARRON/SERN BACA COUNTIES IN
   OK/CO.
   
   MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
   EWD ATTM OUT OF CO/NM ROCKIES AND ONTO ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS --
   NEARLY COLOCATED WITH ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT.  AS THIS BOUNDARY
   REACHES WW AREA -- BY AROUND 6Z-7Z -- SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
   FROM W-E.  IN MEANTIME...DIFFUSE SFC WARM FRONT CONTINUES MOVING NWD
   ACROSS KS -- APCHG I-70 AS OF 330Z.  AS FRONT MOVES NWD...FAVORABLY
   MOIST SFC AIR MASS WILL SPREAD NWD OVER ERN PORTION WW.  INSTABILITY
   IS NEARLY SFC-BASED S OF WARM FRONT BECAUSE OF SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN
   MOIST ADIABATIC BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES..MAINTAINED BY SFC WAA. 
   SBCAPE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE SR INFLOW
   FROM LLJ JUST ABOVE SFC...WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN MCS ALONG WITH ANY
   OTHER CONVECTION FORMING OVER WW AREA. DEEP...SLY-SSELY LLJ OF
   40-50 KT -- PER REGIONAL PROFILER DATA -- SHOULD MAINTAIN FAVORABLE
   MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER WW AREA.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/20/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
   
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