MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0384
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0518 PM CDT MON APR 19 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W TX AND SERN NM...TX PANHANDLE...OK
   PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 90...91...
   
   VALID 192218Z - 200015Z
   
   SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES OVER SRN/ERN PORTIONS WW 90...AND IS
   INCREASING OVER WRN PORTIONS OK/TX PANHANDLE.  ADDITIONALLY...WW 91
   NOW IN EFFECT BECAUSE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN FAVORABLY
   SHEARED/UNSTABLE AIR MASS FARTHER S OVER PECOS RIVER REGION.
   
   FRONTAL ZONE AND DRYLINE ARE RETREATING NWD/NWWD ACROSS NRN PORTION
   OF WW AREA...IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS ERN CO AND NERN
   NM.  DRYLINE ALSO MAY BACK WWD 50-75 NM FARTHER INTO NM...INCREASING
   SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER BORDER COUNTIES ADJACENT TO WW 90.  AS AIR
   MASS DESTABILIZES/MOISTENS INTO AREAS OF NW TX PANHANDLE AND OK
   PANHANDLE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING 30S/40S F SFC DEW
   POINTS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE.  FAIRLY STRAIGHT
   HODOGRAPHS WITH 150-250 J/KG SRH ESTIMATED ACROSS MOST OF WW AREA
   SWD TO NEAR RIO GRANDE.  THIS INDICATES BOTH LEFT- AND RIGHT-MOVING
   SUPERCELLS WITH STORM SPLITS ARE POSSIBLE...ENHANCING POTENTIAL FOR
   LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL.  SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE RELATIVELY HIGH
   ACROSS MUCH OF REGION ATTM -- 20-30 DEG F -- WITH DEEP MIXED LAYERS
   ENHANCING DAMAGING GUST THREAT.  LCL SHOULD LOWER WITH TIME AS
   MOISTURE INCREASES AND SFC TEMPS STEADY THEN COOL. THIS SHOULD
   DECREASE POTENTIAL FOR RELATIVELY YOUNG STORMS TO PRODUCE INTENSE
   COLD POOLS...AND LEAD TO INCREASING TORNADO PROBABILITY FOR STORMS
   NOT ALREADY OUTFLOW-DOMINANT.
   
   FARTHER S...AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED CONSIDERABLY OVER LOWER PECOS
   VALLEY -- WITH 80S SFC TEMPS AND 60S DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTING TO
   MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN
   QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION OVER THIS AREA WITH BACKED SFC
   FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO 0-6 KM SHEARS 65-75 KT.  WRN EDGE OF CLOUD
   COVER FROM JUST E OF MAF SWD MAY LIMIT EWD EXTENT OF MOST FAVORABLE
   DESTABILIZATION FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/19/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
   
   29960124 29940343 32860352 32930130 
   
   32950100 32880342 36930272 36910020