MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0306
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0332 PM CDT FRI APR 09 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL/NE TX...SERN OK...WRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 092032Z - 092200Z
   
   POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM W-CENTRAL AR
   SWWD ACROSS SERN OK TO INVOF RED RIVER...POSSIBLY INTO ADJACENT
   PORTIONS N TX. WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS SWATH.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT NEAR LIT-FSM-OKC LINE THEN NWWD ACROSS
   WW 58...EXPECTED TO DRIFT NWD. CU/TCU ARE DEEPENING IN A BELT 70-90
   NM WIDE FROM JUST N OF DFW METROPLEX NNEWD THROUGH ERN PORTION W
   58...THEN ESEWD INTO WRN AR.  AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE IN
   BOTH LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS ACROSS THIS AREA...WHERE WRN PORTION OF
   DPVA/WAA ASSOCIATED WITH MID-UPPER TROUGH IS JUXTAPOSED WITH
   BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/MOISTENING.  MODIFIED RUC FCST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPING THROUGH 22Z.  VERTICAL SHEAR
   PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION IN THIS
   ENVIRONMENT.  LOW LEVEL FORCING IS WEAK...BUT WITH CINH UNDER 50
   J/KG...DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG WEAK CONVERGENCE LINES AND
   VIGOROUS HCRS IN WARM SECTOR...AS WELL AS ALONG WARM FRONT ITSELF.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/09/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
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