MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0215
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0503 PM CST THU MAR 25 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NW TX...
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 252303Z - 260030Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS LYNN AND CROSBY COUNTIES IN
   NW TX AND ARE MOVING EWD TOWARD MOIST / INSTABILITY AXIS.  LOCALIZED
   SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS THE MD
   AREA.  WITH THREAT FORECAST TO REMAIN ISOLATED...WW NOT ANTICIPATED
   ATTM.
   
   WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SUBTLE UPPER FEATURE NOW ACROSS CENTRAL NM
   MOVING ENEWD...WITH ASSOCIATED UVV APPARENTLY BEGINNING TO
   OVERSPREAD INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS WRN N TX / WRN OK.  CONVECTION
   CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION...PARTICULARLY JUST E AND SE
   OF LBB.  STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS INITIALLY BEEN WITHIN FAIRLY DRY /
   WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT CONVECTION IS SPREADING EWD INTO
   AXIS OF GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE / INSTABILITY.
   
   ALTHOUGH LATEST JAYTON PROFILER INDICATES FAIRLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   AND MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION...STORMS
   APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING A COLD POOL SUGGESTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
   MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION.  THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG
   WITH HAIL SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS STORMS AND
   ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW MOVES EWD INTO MORE FAVORABLE AIRMASS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 03/25/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   34000070 34150031 33959969 33099986 32290044 32290193
   33210174 33750134