MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0040
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0315 AM CST MON JAN 26 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SC...NERN/ECENTRAL GA
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 
   
   VALID 260915Z - 261515Z
   
   SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA IN THE NEXT 3
   HOURS. HOURLY ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 0.25 IN. WILL BE POSSIBLE
   OVER PORTIONS OF SRN/CENTRAL SC AND ECENTRAL GA BETWEEN 26/9Z AND
   26/13Z...WITH HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS SPREADING NWD INTO NRN SC/NERN
   GA BETWEEN 26/12Z AND 26/15Z.
   
   INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS AIDED IN
   RAPID EXPANSION AND DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION OVER SRN
   GA/AL DURING THE LAST 2 HOURS. UP TO THIS POINT...REMNANT CONFLUENT
   MID LEVEL FLOW HAS LIMITED THIS PRECIPITATION FROM MOVING INTO AREAS
   BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER...AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SPREADS EWD OVER
   THE AREA...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SHALLOW
   SUB-FREEZING AIRMASS. 26/09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
   SURFACE FREEZING LINE CONTINUES TO SINK SLOWLY SWD IN RESPONSE TO
   DENSITY EFFECTS...EXTENDING ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SC WWD TO
   SOUTH OF AGS AND THE ATL METRO. AS SFC PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE TO
   INCREASE OVER THE AREA...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE 32 DEG F
   ISOTHERM WILL LIKELY REACH ITS SWD/WWD LIMIT SHORTLY AND MAY EVEN
   MOVE SLOWLY NWD THROUGH THE MID-MORNING.
   
   CONTINUED STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
   ACROSS SRN GA/AL WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER
   THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION OF ONGOING/NEW
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL/SRN GA...AL SUGGESTS THE
   GREATEST THREAT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY CONVECTIVE FREEZING RAIN WILL
   EXIST ALONG A 30 MILE WIDE AXIS FROM 30 S AGS TO 40 N CHS DURING THE
   NEXT 2-4 HOURS. WITH TIME...LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK IN
   RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THUS EXPECT MOD-HVY
   FREEZING RAIN AXIS TO SHIFT NWD...AND EXTEND FROM INTO THE ATL METRO
   AREA NEWD TO NORTH OF THE CAE AREA AFTER 26/12Z.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/26/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...
   
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