Mesoscale Discussion 0574
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0255 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025

   Areas affected...,parts of swrn TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 271955Z - 272100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The initiation of a couple of storms appears increasingly
   likely near and northwest through north of Fort Stockton through 4-5
   PM CDT.  More rapid thunderstorm intensification accompanied by
   increasing potential for large hail and locally damaging wind gusts
   may be initially slow, before probably increasing toward early
   evening around the Midland through Big Spring vicinities.

   DISCUSSION...The boundary-layer is becoming strongly heated and
   deeply mixed across the Davis Mountains vicinity of southwest Texas
   into the Texas South Plains.  The dryline is sharpening east through
   north of Fort Stockton, where 2-hourly surface pressure falls around
   2.0+ mb have been observed the past couple of hours, and low-level
   convergence appears strongest.

   Deepening convective development is ongoing within the deeper
   mixed-boundary layer around Fort Stockton, where surface
   temperature/dew point spreads are around 50 F (95/44), but forecast
   soundings and HREF guidance suggests that the initiation of at least
   isolated thunderstorm development is increasingly probable through
   21-22Z.  It appears that this may be aided by forcing associated
   with a mid-level speed maximum within southwesterly flow emanating
   from the northern Mexican Plateau.

   Downstream of slow moving large-scale mid-level troughing over the
   southern Great Basin and Southwest, after at least some further
   eastward mixing of the dryline late this afternoon, it probably will
   begin to retreat northwest across the Pecos Valley vicinity toward
   23-00Z.  As this occurs, convection may acquire more substantively
   unstable updraft inflow (including most unstable CAPE up to
   2000-3000+ J/kg), supporting increasing potential for rapid
   thunderstorm intensification, in the presence of strong deep-layer
   shear.  This may including a splitting supercell or two, posing a
   risk for large hail and a few strong surface gusts.

   Until then, though, initial thunderstorm development will probably
   be more modest in strength, but could still pose some risk for
   producing severe hail and wind.

   ..Kerr/Smith.. 04/27/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30410326 30870341 31970321 32930244 33180156 32510109
               32000117 31040164 30280230 30410326 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN