Mesoscale Discussion 0264
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0847 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

   Areas affected...portions of north-central TX and far southern OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 260147Z - 260315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few storms ongoing across north-central TX and southern
   OK may persist into this evening with a continued risk for
   occasional hail. These storms should begin to gradually weaken over
   the next couple of hours. Additional storms later tonight may pose
   an isolated risk for isolated hail and damaging winds, but the
   magnitude of the threat remains unclear.

   DISCUSSION...This evening, regional radar imagery showed a cluster
   of splitting supercells had developed and produced occasional
   reports of severe hail across parts of southern OK and the DFW
   Metroplex. SPC mesoanalysis and the 00z FWD sounding show these
   storms ongoing within a local bullseye of 1000-1500 J/kg and modest
   effective shear sufficient for supercells. While not long-lived, and
   limited by stronger inhibition east of DFW, a few of these storms
   may persist for a couple more hours this evening before nocturnal
   stabilization gradually results in weakening. Until then, the
   stronger and more isolated updrafts will remain capable of
   occasional severe hail, given the steep mid-level lapse rates and
   supercell storm mode.

   Farther north across the Red River Valley into southern OK, a second
   round of storms may evolve as the nocturnal low-level jet
   intensifies later tonight. Most guidance suggests a few elevated
   storms could develop after 3-4z, and track southeastward across
   southern OK and north-central/northeast TX. While it is unclear what
   impact the ongoing storms may have on this more elevated regime,
   modest deep-layer shear, and around 1000 J/kg of elevated MUCAPE
   could support a localized hail threat later this evening.

   ..Lyons/Gleason.. 03/26/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   32599745 33169756 34149766 34619735 34519606 33879542
               33519539 32949591 32359659 32339714 32599745 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN