Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Sun Jul 21 16:25:03 UTC 2024 (
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ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 211624 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OREGON... Behind the mid-level shortwave trough now over northwest Oregon/western Washington, thunderstorm potential has decreased in parts of southwestern Oregon. The isolated dry thunder area has been modified to account for this decreased potential. Elsewhere, the outlook remains unchanged as isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain possible late this morning into this afternoon. ..Wendt.. 07/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak upper trough moving along the western periphery of the stout ridge centered west of the Rockies will bring increasing mid-level moisture onshore through today. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible, along with hot, dry and unstable conditions, from the northern Great Basin through much of the Pacific Northwest. An outbreak of dry lightning is probable over receptive fuels across the interior Northwest today and tonight. ...Northern Great Basin and Northwest... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period underneath the northward-moving upper trough along the coastal ranges of OR and southern WA. While gradually decreasing in coverage through the morning, a few storms may persist with a risk for lightning strikes as they move north into WA along and west of the Cascade Crest. Behind the initial round of storms, weak height falls and mid-level moisture advection will continue through the day across parts of northern CA/NV and south-central OR. Weak broad-scale ascent, in combination with diurnal heating and orographic lift, will support scattered thunderstorm development from mid afternoon through the evening hours. A combination of wet (displaced farther south), but mostly dry thunderstorms appear likely with weak buoyancy atop deep mixed-layers and moderate storm motions. Given the low precipitation efficiency and faster storm motions, wetting rainfall potential appears quite low. A significant outbreak of dry lightning is probable within very dry fuel beds across parts of the northern Great Basin and interior Northwest. Thunderstorms may continue overnight expanding northward along the northern Cascades and into the Columbia Basin. Some risk for isolated lightning strikes may extend into Day2/Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...