Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Wed Dec 15 16:10:06 UTC 2021 ( | )

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 151609

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1009 AM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

   Valid 151700Z - 161200Z

   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
   TEXAS PANHANDLE...THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND MUCH OF WESTERN INTO
   CENTRAL KANSAS...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW
   MEXICO...EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHERN
   NEBRASKA...AND MUCH OF KANSAS...

   ***Dangerous fire-weather outbreak expected across parts of the
   central and southern Plains late this morning through this
   evening***

   The previous forecast remains on track, and no changes were made
   with this update. Current visible satellite imagery shows clearing
   skies across the central and southern Plains, which will favor deep
   boundary-layer mixing amid strong downslope flow across the risk
   area. The latest 12Z upper-air data from AMA, DDC, and TOP shows
   70-85 mph winds in the lowest 3,000 feet. This intense low-level
   flow will support very strong wind gusts and sustained
   west-southwesterly surface winds of 40+ mph later this morning into
   the evening with RH in the low teens. Of note, the latest surface
   observation from Lamar, CO recorded a surface wind gust of 107 mph,
   with surrounding observations showing gusts of 70-80 mph. For
   additional information on the dangerous fire-weather threat across
   parts of the central and southern Plains, see the previous
   discussion below.

   ..Weinman/Lyons.. 12/15/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0133 AM CST Wed Dec 15 2021/

   ...Synopsis...
   Very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions are still expected for
   portions of the central Plains today. A 110 kt mid-level jet streak
   accompanying a potent mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the
   central Plains as an intense surface low quickly ejects into the
   Upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon. An impressive vertical wind
   profile will accompany the passing low, with widespread 60+ kt
   low-level flow (just a few hundred feet above the ground) coinciding
   with a mixing boundary layer. Gradient surface flow associated with
   this intense low, combined with vertical mixing, will support very
   windy and dry conditions atop critically dry fuels (90-98th
   percentile ERCs) to support very rapid grassfire spread.

   From late morning into mid afternoon, a few hours of widespread 35+
   mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap with
   10-15 percent RH. Extremely Critical fire weather highlights remain
   in place where confidence is highest in very windy/dry conditions
   persisting longer than 3 hours, and where patchy areas of 40+ mph
   sustained winds are more likely. East of the Extremely Critical
   delineation, high-end Critical to locally Extremely Critical
   conditions are likely.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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