Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Fri Oct 11 06:27:03 UTC 2019 ( | )

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 110626

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0126 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2019

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE TRANSVERSE
   AND PENINSULAR RANGES AND VICINITY...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE TRANSVERSE AND
   PENINSULAR RANGES AND VICINITY...

   ...Synopsis...
   As the upper-level trough centered over the central/northern High
   Plains continues its progression eastward, the upper-level ridge
   across the West Coast is forecast to de-amplify during the period.
   At the surface, a strong high pressure system over the
   central/northern Rockies will begin to weaken early in the period an
   throughout the remainder of the day.

   ...Southern California...
   The 06Z surface observations across southern California show
   extremely low RH -- widespread values below 10% and several readings
   at or below 5% within the higher terrain. The only exceptions are
   some areas near the coast. Winds within the portions of the
   Transverse/Peninsular Ranges remain at 20-35 mph with higher gusts,
   some still at or above 50 mph. The LAX/TPH and LAX/DAG pressure
   gradient observations are currently stronger than guidance has
   forecast with most guidance suggesting that these gradients will
   peak early in the period. With the potential for widespread RH at or
   below 5% and surface winds of 15-30 mph (gusts of 40-70 mph),
   extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected to occur
   during the morning hours. Extremely critical conditions are expected
   to reach as far south as the Laguna Mountains today. By late
   morning/early afternoon, the worst of the conditions are expected to
   subside; however, critical fire weather is expected to continue
   through much of the afternoon. Thereafter, the offshore pressure
   gradient will diminish such that elevated to locally critical
   conditions will remain, particularly in the higher terrain. These
   conditions will exacerbate ongoing fires in Los Angeles, Ventura,
   and Riverside Counties.

   ...Northern California...
   Current surface observations depict elevated to locally critical
   conditions in a few areas along the western slopes of the Sierra.
   Similar conditions may continue through the beginning of the period.
   However, these conditions are expected to remain spatially confined
   and confidence is low on their persistence more than an hour or two
   into the period.

   ..Wendt.. 10/11/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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