Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast (Print Version)

Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Wed Apr 10 16:31:03 UTC 2019 (

)

Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Extreme	79,654	1,827,106	El Paso, TX...Amarillo, TX...Las Cruces, NM...Roswell, NM...Alamogordo, NM...
Critical	143,119	1,484,331	Lubbock, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...San Angelo, TX...Sierra Vista, AZ...

ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 101629 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO...INTO FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...INTO SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...SOUTHEAST COLORADO...TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA... While extremely critical winds/RH are likely to develop east of the extremely critical area within the critical area today fuels are transitioning to green-up/less dry precluding an extremely critical expansion. Mid/high-level clouds stretching from northwest Texas into southwest Kansas may inhibit fire weather/activity, but it is likely to shift eastward during the day with confidence the forecast remains on track. Winds will shift from southwest to westerly across the delineated areas this evening ahead of the cold front as it slides southeast with elevated conditions possibly developing east of the elevated area across portions of Oklahoma/Kansas. This may be a concern given the recent prescribed burning in eastern Kansas/northeast Oklahoma. ..Nauslar.. 04/10/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough, associated with an 80+ knot mid-level jet, will traverse the south-central CONUS, atop a surface thermal ridge ahead of a cold front during the day. Intense deepening of a surface low (with central pressure falling as low as 980-985 mb), will promote a very intense westerly surface wind field across much of the High Plains into portions of the southern Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing and drying, in tandem with the very intense dynamically driven low-level wind fields, will promote a volatile atmospheric environment capable of supporting wildfire spread. Widespread, very strong westerly winds are expected by the mid to late afternoon hours, when isallobaric flow and boundary-layer mixing will be maximized. 30+ mph sustained surface westerly winds are expected behind the dryline, across much of the Four Corners and southern High Plains regions, coincident with widespread 5-15% RH. Elevated/critical areas delineate the lateral bounds where fuels are at least marginally receptive to wildfire spread. However, an extremely critical delineation remains in place, where the greatest confidence in winds exceeding 40 mph, RH dropping to 5-10%, and where fine fuels are most cured, with minimal green-up noted. Here, atmospheric conditions are very favorable for supporting rapid wildfire growth and spread despite the modest receptiveness of the fuels in place, particularly from 21-00Z. Given the intensity of the isallobaric flow in place, nocturnal cooling and subsequent stratification of the boundary layer (to impede the downward transport of higher-momentum air aloft), will only have a limited impact on dampening atmospheric conditions favorable for fire spread through the end of the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...