Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Mon Nov 12 07:46:02 UTC 2018 ( | )

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 120744

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0144 AM CST Mon Nov 12 2018

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN
   CALIFORNIA...FROM THE SAN JACINTO AND SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS TO THE
   MEXICO BORDER...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...ELSEWHERE
   FROM THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS TO THE MEXICO BORDER...

   ...Synopsis...
   A positively tilted longwave trough in the central CONUS will
   continue to advance east, with an upper-level ridge and weaker winds
   aloft settling over the southwest CONUS on Day 2. While a fortified
   pressure gradient will remain strong at the start of the period,
   gradual weakening of this gradient is expected by afternoon as the
   upper-level longwave trough and associated surface high pressure
   moves away from the southwest CONUS. As a result, the surface wind
   environment will slowly become less favorable for rapid fire
   growth/spread through the period.

   ...Southern California...
   A pressure gradient, strongest during the first half of Day 2, will
   remain in place across southern California, where 20+ mph sustained
   east-northeasterly winds and critically low RH will be common. A
   peak in wind speeds is likely during the late morning hours, with
   30+ mph sustained winds (with gusts likely exceeding 40 mph)
   occurring along the slopes and higher terrain of the San Jacinto to
   Laguna Mountain ranges. These stronger winds, coupled with
   single-digit RH values, will render extremely critical surface
   conditions across the southernmost Foothills of California. During
   the afternoon/evening hours, surface winds will weaken some, though
   single-digit RH values combined with 15-25 mph winds suggest that
   conditions will remain very favorable for fire spread/growth, with a
   decrease in favorable conditions being gradual through the remainder
   of Day 2.

   ..Squitieri.. 11/12/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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