Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Sun Nov 11 19:59:03 UTC 2018 ( | )

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 111958

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0158 PM CST Sun Nov 11 2018

   Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
   CALIFORNIA COASTAL RANGES AND FOOTHILLS...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
   CALIFORNIA...

   Minor adjustments have been made to the ongoing forecast on account
   of the latest high-resolution guidance. Elevated areas in
   northern/southern California have been trimmed slightly. The
   large-scale pressure gradient in northern California has trended
   slightly weaker. 15-20 mph flow may be relegated to the higher
   terrain only. As such, some area has been removed.

   ..Wendt.. 11/11/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CST Sun Nov 11 2018/

   ...Synopsis...
   Though a longwave trough will be translating slowly eastward
   throughout the Day 2 period, amplification of this trough (with
   strengthening winds aloft) and intensification of the surface high
   across the Great Basin, will strengthen the already fortified
   pressure gradient across California. The net result will be the
   continuance of surface conditions that support rapid fire growth and
   spread, given the widespread critically low RH and very dry fuels
   that are in place. 

   ...Southern California...
   Strong offshore flow, promoting significant wildfire potential, will
   already prevail across much of southwestern California at the start
   of Day 2, with widespread 20-30 mph sustained northeasterly Santa
   Ana winds expected. During the late morning hours, 30-40 mph surface
   winds are expected in channeled valley regions and along the higher
   terrain of the San Gabriel, to Laguna Mountain ranges. These strong
   winds, coupled with single-digit RH values and dry fuels, will
   promote very rapid wildfire growth, with an extremely critical area
   delineated to account for this very volatile environment.
   Thereafter, winds may weaken somewhat, with elevated to critical
   conditions persisting across the area for the remainder of the
   period.

   ...Northern California...
   Though the synoptic-scale pressure gradient will be somewhat weaker
   farther north compared to southern California, up to 15-20 mph
   northerly winds, combined with very dry fuels and near-critical to
   critically low RH, will foster elevated fire weather conditions,
   mainly during the morning and early afternoon hours. Thereafter,
   surface winds are expected to weaken below elevated thresholds.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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