Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Fri Sep 14 20:01:02 UTC 2018 ( | )

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 141959

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0259 PM CDT Fri Sep 14 2018

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL
   NEVADA AND WEST-CENTRAL UTAH...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEVADA AND UTAH...PORTIONS
   OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN IDAHO...WESTERN/SOUTHERN WYOMING...AND NORTHWEST
   COLORADO...

   Extremely critical conditions are likely to develop over portions of
   east-central Nevada and west-central Utah as southwest sustained
   surface winds of 30-35 mph and RH values of 5-15% are forecast to
   develop over this area. The critical area was also expanded to
   include more of western/northern Nevada as enhanced downslope flow
   and strong mid-level winds will mix to the surface yielding
   sustained west-southwest winds of 20-30 mph and RH values of 5-15%. 
   Critical conditions will likely last for several hours and overnight
   RH recovery will continue to be poor. Active large fires across the
   elevated/critical/extremely critical areas will be affected and
   fuels remain critical with some stations/areas approaching or
   setting new record high (low) values for ERCs (fuel moisture).

   ..Nauslar.. 09/14/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Fri Sep 14 2018/

   ...Synopsis...
   A shortwave trough will round the base of a longwave trough over the
   northeastern Pacific on D2/Saturday. An associated, potent mid-level
   jet will overspread portions of the Great Basin during the
   afternoon. In response to the upper-level wave, a surface trough
   will deepen over the northern Great Basin and increase the surface
   pressure gradient.

   ...Portions of Great Basin and Central Rockies...
   Another day of widespread critical weather conditions are expected
   over parts of the Intermountain West. Stronger mid-level flow as
   well as a stronger surface pressure gradient are expected as
   compared to previous days. Afternoon winds will reach 20-25 mph with
   some areas, particularly east-central Nevada and portions of western
   Utah, potentially experiencing 30+ mph. Enough uncertainty exists
   with regard to the location/duration of 30+ mph winds that no
   upgrade to extremely critical will be made at this time. A very dry
   airmass will remain in place with RH values generally in the 5-15%
   range. Surrounding these critical areas, a broader area of elevated
   fire weather conditions can be expected. RH values will range from
   10-20% with surface winds only reaching 15-20 mph. Some model
   guidance suggest areas of west-central Nevada may reach critical
   thresholds, but enough spread exists within model solutions that a
   critical area will not be introduced in this outlook.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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