Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Apr 5, 2025

Updated: Sat Apr 5 21:44:02 UTC 2025

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area No Risk Areas Forecast

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 052140

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0440 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

   Valid 071200Z - 131200Z

   An upper-level trough will track over the Southeast weakening and
   displacing the Bermuda High early this week. An associated cold
   front will push off the Atlantic Coast and through the Florida
   Peninsula Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday with a secondary cold front
   weakening as it moves through the Southeast. A cooler drier airmass
   will remain over much of the eastern US through most of this
   upcoming week, with another upper-level trough and associated cold
   front forecast to move through the region Day 7/Friday - Day
   8/Saturday. Upper-level short-wave ridging will break down over the
   West early this week as westerly flow strengthens from the southern
   Cascades through the Colorado Rockies. The southern half of the West
   will remain warm and dry for the outlook period. 

   ...Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday: Florida Peninsula...
   Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are expected across portions of
   the Florida Peninsula Day 3/Monday with dry/breezy post-frontal
   conditions possible through mid-week. Uncertainty remains regarding
   the extent and amount of precipitation on the Florida Peninsula as
   the cold front arrives and an upper-level trough passes over the
   region. Thus a 40% area was maintained on Day 3/Monday, but
   probabilities were not included the following days due to the
   uncertainty regarding the forecast precipitation and if the
   post-frontal dry/breezy conditions will approach critical
   thresholds. 

   ...Day 5/Wednesday: Southwest onto central High Plains...
   As an upper-level jet moves over the Intermountain West, the
   potential for overlapping critical winds/RH increases from portions
   of the Southwest onto the central High Plains. However,
   ongoing/recent precipitation in these areas and forecast uncertainty
   regarding where critical winds/RH may develop preclude from
   introducing probabilities at this time. If stronger winds extend
   farther south where drier fuels exist, then probabilities of
   critical conditions will increase as a dry airmass will be in place
   over the Southwest.

   ...Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday: Southwest into the Great Basin...
   An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the West Day 7/Friday
   through next weekend. However, a fair amount of forecast uncertainty
   remains regarding the timing and strength of the trough, thus,
   precluding introducing probabilities of critical conditions at this
   time. If forecast guidance trends hold, then probabilities will need
   to be introduced across portions of the Southwest and possibly into
   the Great Basin.

   ..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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