Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
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| D3 | Sun, Jan 19, 2025 - Mon, Jan 20, 2025 | D6 | Wed, Jan 22, 2025 - Thu, Jan 23, 2025 |
| D4 | Mon, Jan 20, 2025 - Tue, Jan 21, 2025 | D7 | Thu, Jan 23, 2025 - Fri, Jan 24, 2025 |
| D5 | Tue, Jan 21, 2025 - Wed, Jan 22, 2025 | D8 | Fri, Jan 24, 2025 - Sat, Jan 25, 2025 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 172159 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Southern California... Within the base of a highly amplified, positive-tilt large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough will track southeastward across the Southwest into the southern Rockies from Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday. At the same time, an amplified upper ridge will build over the eastern Pacific, favoring strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. This pattern will result in a strengthening offshore pressure gradient across southern CA (-6 to -8 mb LAX-DAG gradient), with moderate midlevel support across the area. Given reasonably good agreement in the development of single-digit to lower teens RH and strong/gusty east-northeasterly surface winds, 70-percent Critical probabilities have been introduced for the wind-prone Santa Ana corridor (much of Ventura County, northern/western Los Angeles County, and portions of northern San Bernardino County) for Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday. From Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday, another shortwave trough should track southeastward across the Great Basin and Southwest, while an upstream ridge builds over the eastern Pacific. While noteworthy differences are evident among the medium-range guidance regarding this overall evolution, current indications are that surface high pressure will once again strengthen over the Intermountain West, favoring the potential for another dry offshore wind event across southern CA. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details become more clear. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT