Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jul 2, 2024

Updated: Tue Jul 2 21:56:03 UTC 2024

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area No Risk Areas Forecast

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 022152

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0452 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024

   Valid 041200Z - 101200Z

   An unusually strong ridge of high pressure will dominate the West
   Coast synoptic pattern through the extended forecast period. 600 DAM
   500 mb heights will allow for extreme heat and very dry surface
   conditions to develop over much of the Southwest and Great Basin.
   Several weak upper troughs will move along the eastern edge of the
   ridge supporting occasional stronger surface winds and some fire
   danger. Otherwise, modest synoptic winds will occur under the ridge
   over much of the West, with near record temperatures and rapid
   drying of fuels likely.

   ...Northwest and Great Basin...
   As the strong ridge of high pressure intensifies this week, several
   modest perturbations will move around the top and eastern periphery
   of the ridge over the Northwest and northern Great Basin late in the
   week and into the weekend. With several days of hot and very dry
   conditions expected prior, gusty downslope winds of 15-25 mph could
   support localized fire-weather concerns across the lee of the
   Cascades and western Columbia Basin D3/Thursday and D4/Friday.
   Confidence in the coverage of stronger winds and uncertainties in
   fuel availability will preclude probabilities for now.

   More significant fire-weather concerns appear likely this weekend as
   the upper trough and associated jet streak move south into the Great
   Basin. A wind shift at the surface will accompany the upper trough
   as breezy northwest surface winds to 20-25 mph develop behind it
   across parts of southern ID, northern NV and western UT D5/Saturday.
   Very warm temperatures and low RH of 10-15% will precede the
   increase in winds, supporting an increased risk for critical
   fire-weather conditions.

   D6/Sunday and beyond, confidence in the evolution of the upper ridge
   and the associated synoptic pattern decreases substantially. Some
   risk for dry and breezy conditions may continue with northwesterly
   flow aloft across parts of the Southwest and Great Basin. However,
   the spatial coverage and uncertainties in fuels lend low confidence
   in the potential for critical fire-weather conditions at this time.

   ...Southern CA...
   Periodic offshore and terrain-enhanced flow is expected over parts
   of southern CA late this week. South of the ridge of high pressure,
   light easterly mid-level winds are expected to overspread the Desert
   Southwest and southern CA. While weak, somewhat enhanced low-level
   pressure gradients may support a few hours of breezy downslope winds
   near 20-25 mph overnight D3/Thursday through D5/Friday. With very
   hot and dry conditions likely beneath the ridge, localized
   near-critical fire-weather conditions may occur with these weak
   Sundowner winds and across parts of the southern CA Valleys. Winds
   should dissipate this weekend as the upper ridge shifts eastward and
   the weak upper-level support lessens.

   ..Lyons/Halbert.. 07/02/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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